Vote according to your savings

In just under four months, Americans will hold midterm elections. As the name suggests, they are an opportunity for voters to react if they are dissatisfied with the party in power, with two years left in Joe Biden's term.

“I turn a blind eye to everything social. I know I’m going to make more money in the end with a Republican elected official, so my choice is easy.” That’s how one voter with dual Canadian and American citizenship explained to me the reasoning behind his vote. It was 2018, and the 60-year-old entrepreneur simply didn’t trust Democrats to handle the economy. Four years later, a large portion of the electorate doesn’t seem to have changed their minds. The majority of pollsters agree on two things: the Democrats don’t have the advantage, and the economy is Americans’ number one priority.

Despite the social news that could on paper greatly motivate the Democratic troops, they are not among the priorities. Whether it is firearms, with more than 330 mass shootings since the beginning of the year, or this decision of the Supreme Court on abortion, which no longer guarantees its legality everywhere in the country, one would think that these two elements alone would shock and help the base… But in reality, the food that we must put on the table, the roof to house ourselves, and the gasoline that we must put in the car take priority.

Inflation, Impacts and Integrated Markets

Nothing to help the president, the latest inflation report is not reassuring with an increase of 9.1% compared to last year. A recent study by the Bank of America also shows that American investors are more pessimistic than ever. He may blame factors beyond his control such as problems with the supply chain since the pandemic, or the war in Ukraine which has made the energy market very unstable, but it is still quite normal for a leader to be accountable. After all, he is the one in charge of his population and its well-being. As I have presented in my previous columns, the social fabric is less well anchored to help people in precarious situations than in Canada.

Moreover, while unemployment may be low in North America, companies are hiring to fill critical positions. They will have no choice but to raise their employees' salaries to fill the vacancies and to raise the prices of their products to take on inflation themselves.

With a provincial election approaching in our country this fall, we can also bet that François Legault will have to face the same types of challenges as his American counterparts. Our markets are so interconnected. Let's not forget that Canada is the United States' main trading partner with 15% of trade, ahead of Mexico and China. The business sector and politicians are therefore closely monitoring what is happening in our neighbouring countries.

As the saying goes, “when Americans cough, Canada gets the flu.”